2008 Recession 

Tuesday, December 16, 2008, 11:47am

The National Bureau of Economic Research determined the US was in a recession for all of 2008. NBER is the definitive determiner of business cycles. Given that 1.9 million jobs were loss during 2008, the bureau is most likely correct. NBER does not confine their determination of peaks and troughs to only GDP growth.

Do Tax Rate Cuts Increase Tax Revenues? 

Saturday, April 19, 2008, 5:29pm

The historical evidence indicates that some tax cuts do increase tax revenues and some do not. For example, the 2001 tax cuts did not increase tax revenues but the 2003 cuts did. It could almost be argued that the 2003 tax rate decreases did more to raise federal receipts than the 1993 tax rate increases as the slope is steeper after 2003 than after 1993 but when the federal receipts are adjusted for inflation the slope is not as steep.

John Maynard Keynes wrote,
Nor should the argument seem strange that taxation may be so high as to defeat its object, and that, given sufficient time to gather the fruits, a reduction of taxation will run a better chance than an increase of balancing the budget. For to take the opposite view today is to resemble a manufacturer who, running at a loss, decides to raise his price, and when his declining sales increase the loss, wrapping himself in the rectitude of plain arithmetic, decides that prudence requires him to raise the price still more -- and who, when at last his account is balanced with nought on both sides, is still found righteously declaring that it would have been the act of a gambler to reduce the price when you were already making a loss.


US Federal Receipts (in millions)
Current Dollars Chained 1993 Dollars
 Year   Receipts   % 
 Change 
 Inflation 
 Adjustment 
 Adjusted 
 Receipts 
 % 
 Change 
1993 1,258,721 -- -- 1,258,721 --
1994 1,351,932 7.41% 97.39% 1,316,672 4.60%
1995 1,453,177 7.49% 94.51% 1,373,387 4.31%
1996 1,579,423 8.69% 91.35% 1,442,836 5.06%
1997 1,721,955 9.02% 89.09% 1,534,041 6.32%
1998 1,827,645 6.14% 87.44% 1,598,092 4.18%
1999 2,025,457 10.82% 84.56% 1,712,672 7.17%
2000 1,991,426 -1.68% 80.58% 1,604,622 -6.31%
2001 1,853,395 -6.93% 78.04% 1,446,335 -9.86%
2002 1,782,532 -3.82% 75.57% 1,346,992 -6.87%
2003 1,880,279 5.48% 73.03% 1,373,107 1.94%
2004 2,153,859 14.55% 68.98% 1,485,675 8.20%
2005 2,407,254 11.76% 63.28% 1,523,328 2.53%
2006 2,568,239 6.69% 61.50% 1,579,370 3.68%
Inflation
 Year   CPI Value   Inflation Adjustment   Inflation 
1993 145.70 -- --
1994 149.50 97.39% 2.61%
1995 153.70 94.51% 2.81%
1996 158.30 91.35% 2.99%
1997 161.60 89.09% 2.08%
1998 164.00 87.44% 1.49%
1999 168.20 84.56% 2.56%
2000 174.00 80.58% 3.45%
2001 177.70 78.04% 2.13%
2002 181.30 75.57% 2.03%
2003 185.00 73.03% 2.04%
2004 190.90 68.98% 3.19%
2005 199.20 63.28% 4.35%
2006 201.80 61.50% 1.31%

Federal Receipts Unadjusted for Inflation from 1993 to 2006 (in millions)



Federal Receipts Adjusted for Inflation from 1993 to 2006 (in millions)



Sources: Federal Receipts, Federal Reserve Economic Database and CPI All Urban Consumers, Federal Reserve Economic Database

Human Suffering 

Monday, April 14, 2008, 6:18am

Senator Clinton was recently asked "Why does God allow human suffering?" It is certain that human suffering falls upon both the good and the bad so too does human happiness (Matthew 5:44-45). Don't be miserable comforters blaming suffering on wrong doing (Job 16:2). Senator Clinton responded that the existence of suffering is a call to action. Liberal Democrats are like broken clocks in that they are right twice a day. She is right but the role of government is limited in alleviating suffering. The proper role of government in "promoting the general welfare" is pro-growth economic policies.

Job Loss From Free Trade 

Wednesday, April 9, 2008, 5:54am

"As I have said for months, I oppose the deal, I have spoken out against the deal, I will vote against the deal and I will do everything I can to urge the Congress to reject the Colombia free trade agreement," the New York Democrat told a Washington gathering of the Communication Workers of America. -- Associated Press

Senators Clinton and Obama should take counsel from Adam Smith.
To give the monopoly of the home-market to the produce of domestic industry, in any particular art or manufacture, is in some measure to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, and must, in almost all cases, be either a useless or a hurtful regulation. If the produce of domestic can be brought there as cheap as that of foreign industry, the regulation is evidently useless. If it cannot, it must generally be hurtful. It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy. The taylor does not attempt to make his own shoes, but buys them of the shoemaker. The shoemaker does not attempt to make his own clothes, but employs a taylor. The farmer attempts to make neither the one nor the other, but employs those different artificers. All of them find it for their interest to employ their whole industry in a way in which they have some advantage over their neighbours, and to purchase with a part of its produce, or what is the same thing, with the price of a part of it, whatever else they have occasion for." -- Wealth of Nations, p. iv.2.11

The argument we most often hear against free trade is that we lose jobs as a consequence. The job loss argument may be intuitively appealing but the historical data refutes it. If you really care about jobs, be a free trader.



Source: Unemployment Rate

Should we oppose technological advancement because jobs are loss in the sector technology impacted? The savings in resources from technological advancement and free trade are used for other economic pursuits. In Mr. Smith's words,
The undertaker of a great manufacture, who, by the home-markets being suddenly laid open to the competition of foreigners, should be obliged to abandon his trade, would no doubt suffer very considerably. That part of his capital which had usually been employed in purchasing materials and in paying his workmen might, without much difficulty, perhaps, find another employment. -- Wealth of Nations, p. iv.2.44

Graphical Presidential Economic Comparison 

Saturday, April 5, 2008, 10:18pm

President George W. Bush



President William J. Clinton



President George H. W. Bush



President Ronald W. Reagan



It is good to have Republicans in office when recessions occur because they are ideologically better suited to facilitate recoveries.

Stare Decisis Run Amok 

Sunday, March 30, 2008, 5:17pm

After the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified on July 9, 1868, the Supreme Court ignored John Bingham's intent to make the first eight amendments enforceable upon the states. Chief Justice Morrison Waite wrote in United States v. Cruikshank (1875) 92 US 542 at 552:
The first amendment to the Constitution prohibits Congress from abridging "the right of the people to assemble and to petition the government for a redress of grievances." This, like the other amendments proposed and adopted at the same time, was not intended to limit the powers of the State governments in respect to their own citizens, but to operate upon the National Government alone.... It is now too late to question the correctness of this construction. As was said by the late Chief Justice, in Twitchell v. The Commonwealth, 7 Wall. 325, "the scope and application of these amendments are no longer subjects of discussion here." They left the authority of the States just where they found it, and added nothing to the already existing powers of the United States.

In 1897, Justice John Harlan in Chicago, B & Q R Co v. City of Chicago (1897) 166 US 226 at 238-239 cites a lower court that understood the Fourteenth Amendment correctly. He writes,
In Scott v. Toledo, 36 Fed.Rep. 385, 395-396, the late Mr. Justice Jackson, while Circuit Judge, had occasion to consider this question. After full consideration, that able judge said:

"Whatever may have been the power of the States on this subject prior to the adoption of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution, it seems clear that, since that amendment went into effect, such limitations and restraints have been placed upon their power in dealing with individual rights that the States cannot now lawfully appropriate private property for the public benefit or to public uses without compensation to the owner, and that any attempt so to do, whether done in pursuance of a constitutional provision or legislative enactment, whether done by the legislature itself or under delegated authority by one of the subordinate agencies of the State, and whether done directly, by taking the property of one person and vesting it in another or the public, or indirectly, through the forms of law, by appropriating the property and requiring the owner thereof to compensate himself, or to refund to another the compensation to which he is entitled, would be wanting in that 'due process of law' required by said amendment. The conclusion of the court on this question is that, since the adoption of the Fourteenth Amendment, compensation for private property taken for public uses constitutes an essential element in 'due process of law,' and that, without such compensation, the appropriation of private property to public uses, no matter under what form of procedure it is taken, would violate the provisions of the federal Constitution."

The battle between these two interpretations continued. The case history I prefer is:

Harlan's Dissent in Twining v. State, 211 U.S. 78 (1908) at 114
Black's Dissent in Adamson v. California, 332 U.S. 46 (1947) at 68
Malloy v. Hogan, 378 U.S. 1 (1964)
Duncan v. Louisiana, 391 U.S. 145 (1968)

Bill of Rights 

Friday, March 28, 2008, 3:02am

I was blissfully ignorant of the controversy regarding whether the first eight amendments to the US Constitution apply to the states and local governments. Imagine the shock, no, the horror of discovering the Bill of Rights only protected your rights from Federal government violation but not breaches by lower governmental entities. Such was recently my misfortune.

The controversy begins in 1833 with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Marshall declaring in Barron v. Baltimore (1833) 32 US 243 at 250:
These amendments demanded security against the apprehended encroachments of the General Government -- not against those of the local governments. In compliance with a sentiment thus generally expressed, to quiet fears thus extensively entertained, amendments were proposed by the required majority in Congress and adopted by the States. These amendments contain no expression indicating an intention to apply them to the State governments. This court cannot so apply them.


and reiterated by Supreme Court Justice William Johnson in Livingston v. Moore (1833) 32 US 469 at 551-552. He wrote:
As to the amendments of the Constitution of the United States, they must be put out of the case, since it is now settled that those amendments do not extend to the states, and this observation disposes of the next exception, which relies on the seventh article of those amendments.

I think the justices were mistaken and factually in error about "apprehended encroachments." When James Madison proposed the Bill of Rights, he said:
I wish also, in revising the Constitution, we may throw into that section, which interdicts the abuse of certain powers in the State Legislatures, some other provisions of equal, if not greater importance than those already made. The words, "No State shall pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law," &c. were wise and proper restrictions in the Constitution. I think there is more danger of those powers being abused by the State Governments than by the Government of the United States. The same may be said of other powers which they possess, if not controlled by the general principle, that laws are unconstitutional which infringe the rights of the community. I should therefore wish to extend this interdiction, and add, as I have stated in the 5th resolution, that no State shall violate the equal right of conscience, freedom of the press, or trial by jury in criminal cases; because it is proper that every Government should be disarmed of powers which trench upon those particular rights. I know, in some of the State constitutions, the power of the Government is controlled by such a declaration; but others are not. I cannot see any reason against obtaining even a double security on those points; and nothing can give a more sincere proof of the attachment of those who opposed this Constitution to these great and important rights, than to see them join in obtaining the security I have now proposed; because it must be admitted, on all hands, that the State Governments are as liable to attack these invaluable privileges as the General Government is, and therefore ought to be as cautiously guarded against.

Annals of Congress, 1st Congress, House 1st Session, p. 458

I also think that the reason for the first eight amendments being stated so broadly, with the exception of the first, was to proscribe, in principle and effect, all governments under the US Constitution alienating the natural rights of individuals. That is my reading of the sixth article of the Constitution of the US.

The Bill of Rights' controversy is corrected by the history of section one of the fourteenth amendment to Constitution of the United States. On February 28, 1866, US Representative John Bingham (R-OH) cites the afore mentioned Supreme Court decisions, says:
Why, I ask, should not the "injunctions and prohibitions," addressed by the people in the Constitution to the States and the Legislatures of States, be enforced by the people through the proposed amendment? By the decisions read the people are without remedy.

The Congressional Globe, 39th Congress, House 1st Session, p. 1090

and he further states:
The adoption of the proposed amendment will take from the States no rights that belong to the States. They elect their Legislatures; they enact their laws for the punishment of crimes against life, liberty, or property; but in the event of the adoption of this amendment, if they conspire together to enact laws refusing equal protection to life, liberty, or property, the Congress is thereby vested with power to hold them to answer before the bar of the national courts for the violations of their oaths and of the rights of their fellow-men. Why should it not be so? That is the question. Why should it not be so? Is the bill of rights to stand in our Constitution hereafter, as in the past five years within eleven States, a mere dead letter? It is absolutely essential to the safety of the people that it should be enforced.

ibid.

In 1871, the honorable Mr. Bingham after again mentioning these decisions and reciting the first eight amendments, remarked:
These eight articles I have shown never were limitations upon the power of the States, until made so by the fourteenth amendment. The words of that amendment, "no State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States," are an express prohibition upon every State of the Union, which may be enforced under existing laws of Congress, and such other laws for their better enforcement as Congress may make.

The Congressional Globe, 42nd Congress, House 1st Session, p. 84

There's more to the story but I will continue it in another post.

Free Trade is Fair Trade 

Sunday, March 9, 2008, 6:45am

Senators Clinton and Obama reignited the NAFTA debate. Both are calling for a renegotiation of NAFTA. They are motivated by perceived inequities and job losses as a result of free trade agreements. This is unfortunate because barriers to free trade usually have more adverse effects than favorable effects (e.g., Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act). There are losers in free trade but there are more winners than losers.

It is an old argument that individuals in developing economies cannot afford the goods and services of developed economies; hence, there should be no trade as it would not be fair. It is an equally old argument that to expand the market for domestic products requires first investing in foreign markets by direct investment and consumption of foreign products so people in emerging markets can afford the goods and services of developed markets. Globalization is a good solution to the problem of domestic market saturation and leads to more efficient uses of resources.

Free trade is fair trade because it is determined by the market. Americans can compete. Barriers to trade on any side is not free trade. The genius of capitalism is competition.

Protect America First 

Thursday, February 7, 2008, 3:01pm

Governor Romney graciously and wisely suspended his campaign. He stated:
You are with me all the way to the convention. Fight on, just like Ronald Reagan did in 1976. But there is an important difference from 1976: today, we are a nation at war.

And Barack and Hillary have made their intentions clear regarding Iraq and the war on terror. They would retreat and declare defeat. And the consequence of that would be devastating. It would mean attacks on America, launched from safe havens that make Afghanistan under the Taliban look like child's play. About this, I have no doubt.

I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden, and on eliminating Al Qaeda and terror. If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.

Conservatives hope to see his campaign again.

From the RNC:


McCain Warming 

Wednesday, February 6, 2008, 6:16pm

Browsing Senator McCain's website yields the following points of agreement:

1) War on Terror in Iraq
If efforts in Iraq do not retain the support of the American people, the war will be lost as soundly as if our forces were defeated in battle. A renewed effort at home starts with explaining precisely what is at stake in this war to ensure that Americans fully understand the high cost of a military defeat. The war in Iraq is at a crossroads and the future of the entire region is at stake - a region that produced the terrorists who attacked America on 9/11 and where much of the world's energy supplies are located. Success is essential to creating peace in the region, and failure would expose the United States to national security threats for generations.


2) Fiscal Policy
John McCain will permanently repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) -- a tax that will be paid nearly exclusively by 25 million middle class families.... John McCain will make the Bush income and investment tax cuts permanent, keeping income tax rates at their current level and fighting the Democrats' plans for a crippling tax increase in 2011.... John McCain believes it should require a 3/5 majority vote in Congress to raise taxes.... John McCain has been a leader in keeping the Internet free of taxes. As President, he will seek a permanent ban on taxes that threaten this engine of economic growth and prosperity.... John McCain will veto every pork-laden spending bill and make their authors famous.


3) Health Care
Reform the tax code to eliminate the bias toward employer-sponsored health insurance, and provide all individuals with a $2,500 tax credit ($5,000 for families) to increase incentives for insurance coverage. Individuals owning innovative multi-year policies that cost less than the full credit can deposit remainder in expanded health savings accounts.


4) Energy Policy
We have in use today a zero emission energy that could provide electricity for millions more homes and businesses than it currently does. Yet it has been over twenty-five years since a nuclear power plant has been constructed. The barriers to nuclear energy are political not technological. We've let the fears of thirty years ago, and an endless political squabble over the storage of nuclear spent fuel make it virtually impossible to build a single new plant that produces a form of energy that is safe and non-polluting.



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